🏈 The Tiers
No paywall, just a whole lot of value.
Good morning. I checked most of the typical sources, and trust me when I say that nothing important happened yesterday. Sorry Wayne Gallman fans, but his signing to the Falcons doesn’t matter.
To give you an idea of how slow yesterday was, this was a “headline” on rotoworld
See what I’m dealing with?
So, we’ve got something special for you.
Today, for the first-time ever, we’re releasing our Morning Huddle Tears. I mean Tiers. I have no tears left after 10+ years as a Bengals fan.
These are tiered rankings for every fantasy-relevant player, at every fantasy-relevant position. That means no kickers, no defenses, just the fun stuff.
ARE YOU HYPED OR WHAT?
I’d normally be worried that my friends would see these and use them against me in home leagues, but they trust my fantasy football IQ as much as Bears fans trust Cody Parkey:
Now, ladies and degenerates, we present the Morning Huddle Tiers (note to self: we need a better name for these). We’ll start with the QBs today:
Quarterbacks
Tier 1: Elite of Elite
Highest floor & ceiling combo in the league. These guys have unmatched volume, skills, and rushing upside. 22+ points is the weekly floor.
Patrick Mahomes - Obviously.
Josh Allen - If the preseason was any indication, the Bills should lead the league in passing, and Allen’s arm strength + rushing upside + yearly improvement puts him and Mahomes in the top tier.
Tier 2: Elite
Close to entering the first tier, each of these QBs is missing one aspect that would vault them into the elite of the elite.
Kyler Murray - Kyler suffered a shoulder injury in Week 9 of the 2020 season, resulting in his rushing attempts falling off a cliff. After Week 9, his per-game fantasy point average dropped 7+ points. Still only 24, Kyler could move into the first tier if he regains his early-season rushing volume.
Dak Prescott - The QB1 before his injury, Dak was cleared to practice at the beginning of Cowboys camp and should have no issue regaining form with Zeke, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup forming the strongest skill-position group in the league.
Lamar Jackson - He runs. He throws. He runs some more. After a rocky start, the Ravens went back to the well and schemed more Lamar Jackson runs. After the change (Week 13), Lamar averaged 26 fantasy points and the Ravens won 4 straight. Wonder if they should do that again.
Russell Wilson - We’ve all been tweeting #LetRussCook and hoping Pete Carrol would see. Early in the 2020 season, it appeared to work, with Russ averaging 34 ppg in Weeks 1-3 and the Seahawks winning 3 straight to start the year. But Pete Carroll said f*** your fantasy team. Russ has the skillset and weapons to join the first tier, he just needs the opportunity.
Tier 3: Great
Each QB in this range has their own strengths, leading to many high ceiling, 3+ TD weeks, but they average around 18-20 fantasy points per week. Most are missing the rushing upside.
Justin Herbert - The fantasy community is sleeping on this sophomore star, and they shouldn’t be. He reminds me of a year-2 Josh Allen. The arm strength, size, rushing ability. Here’s a great article on the Justin you don’t know.
Aaron Rodgers - The reigning MVP brought the band back together. With the Packers bringing back all his weapons, there is no reason to think Aaron drops off from last season. And if he shows up with a handlebar mustache Week 1, watch out.
Jalen Hurts - The best bet for a Lamar-like breakout in 2021, Jalen Hurts averaged 25.9 points per start in 2020, his rookie season.
Matthew Stafford - By far the best offense, best weapons, and best coach of Stafford’s career, he is my pick for 2021 MVP. The Rams mortgaged their future to get Stafford and will let him cook this season. Losing Cam Akers doesn’t hurt Stafford’s volume projections either.
Tom Brady - With the most lethal WR core in the entire league, and a Ronald-Jones led run game, the Bucs will rely on Brady to matriculate the ball down the field. The Bucs are the first Super Bowl winner to return 22-of-22 starters, so there’s no reason to expect any regression after Brady finished QB8 in 2020.
Tier 4: Could be Elite
These guys should be taken for their upside alone. They could easily put up 25+ per game, like Jalen Hurts did when given the starting role last season.
Justin Fields
Trey Lance
Tier 5: Solid but Limited
A bit like my athletic career - always a good player, never a great one. These guys have a high floor, but a low ceiling due to a lack of rushing opportunities in limiting offensive schemes. Expect most games in the 14-17 point range.
Joe Burrow - Improving offense with young and exciting weapons. O-line can’t be worse this season. Right? Right??
Ryan Tannehill - Julio Jones and AJ Brown push Tannehill’s floor up, but Titans still expected to be run-heavy.
Zach Wilson - With better stats on 30+ yard throws in 2020 than Patrick Mahomes, Wilson has done everything right this preseason in an underrated offense. J-E-T-S, JETS JETS JETS. Adam Gase is gone. G-O-N-E.
Baker Mayfield - Talented WRs on a run-first team. Play action opportunities keep Baker’s floor high.
Kirk Cousins - No TE to speak of, but Theilen and Justin Jefferson make up for it.
Matt Ryan - Should be trailing in most games and the Julio -> Pitts downgrade won’t be as large as people think. Plus the Arthur Smith effect.
Trevor Lawrence - He went #1 for a reason. Solid WR core, expect a roller coaster season similar to Andrew Luck’s rookie year.
Tier 6: Ryan Fitzpatrick & Frank Gore
Would be comedy if they switched the (Today) photos.
Quick Hits
Falcons waived RB Qadree Ollison.
See what I mean? Nothing interesting. You should be thanking me for not including the snooze-worthy updates.
THANK YOU - did you enjoy the Tiers? Let us know your thoughts. I’m thinking these will be updated daily (we’ll post “Tier changes” after the Quick Hits) so you can stay on top of trades and pickups all season.
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Digging your new column! its Donda hands down. Hurricane slaps.
I enjoy your write ups. It’s one of the few emails I actually look forward to daily. I liked what you did with the qb tiers and think you should do all positions including IDP and sell your draft rankings. I would probably buy it.