🏈 Happy Thanksgiving
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Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving. We are thankful for you. 🙏
Eddie and I (Jake) work full time jobs and write this at the end of each day. We’re taking a thanksgiving break tomorrow but will be back Sat & Sun. Eddie has surgery this morning, so wish him luck!
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Let’s GO!!! You’re busy, so we’ll make this quick. Kinda.
Tweet of the Day
The Painful Watch - Bears x Lions
Passing
Lions: It’s sad that Jared Goff’s return is an upgrade for an offense, but Tim Boyle was that bad.
Bears: Andy Dalton will start as Justin Fields recovers from a rib injury. Don’t be a hero.
Receiving
T.J Hockenson hasn’t been good, but was targeted on 33% of his routes. Issue is the shorter targets and lower YAC than any other season. Hasn’t cracked 10 points since Week 2. No Lions pass catcher is trustworthy.
Darnell Mooney should see double-digit targets in Allen Robinson’s absence. Marquise Goodwin ran routes on a season high 76% of dropbacks with Robinson out and finished with 104 yards; a high risk sleeper start. Sit Cole Kmet.
Rushing
David Montgomery might be a week winner. 90% of the snaps since his return, Lions are 4th worst against the run and Montgomery had 106 yards and 2 TDs in Week 4 against them. Montgomery is down 11% on Prediction Strike.
D’Andre Swift saw 73% snap share in Jamaal Williams return and should continue to see the majority of the work, making him a mid-end RB1.
Might be Fun - Cowboys x Raiders
Passing
Derek Carr has struggled since losing his deep threat (6 TD: 7 Ints). Trevon Diggs will be roaming in the secondary.
Dak Prescott leads the NFL with 15 passing TD’s against the blitz - the Raiders blitz at the NFL's lowest rate (11.7%) but get pressure at the highest rate. Might be tough.
Rushing
Josh Jacobs snap share steadily decreased since Gruden was fired, but Cowboys struggle against the run (29th in run defense). Kenyan Drake has six touches in each of the past 2 games, a must-sit.
Ezekiel Elliott must not realize I have Tony Pollard on my bench, as Zeke decided to gut through the ankle injury suffered in Week 11. Zeke should handle his usual workload (or more), as teams run the ball more against the Raiders to avoid the pass-rush. Tony Pollard is an upside play here… At least that’s what I’m telling myself.
Receiving
Michael Gallup and Dalton Shultz. Everything else is a prayer. Despite practicing, CeeDee Lamb is still questionable.
Darren Waller has a 25% target share with Hunter Renfrow at 21% making them both reliable plays. Bryan Edwards ran a route on 77% of snaps but doesn’t get open.
At least Josh Allen’s Healthy? - Bills x Saints
Passing
Josh Allen faces a Saints defense ranking 7th in coverage grade. Allen’s only seem one other top 10 graded coverage team. He scored 31.3 points in that matchup. Yup, he’s good, and everyone loves him.
Taysom Hill starting would be fun. Trevor Siemian starting is realistic. Siemian has the #1 PFF passing grade in the 4th quarter but is dead last in the first three. Either way, Hill’s new contract is worth reading.
Rushing
Tony Jones Jr., it’s been a minute. Alvin Kamara was ruled out and Mark Ingram is questionable (knee) - Jones could lead the backfield. Bills rank 20th in rush defense and just gave up 5 TDs (albeit to JTaylor). Jones has RB2 upside if Ingram sits. Tony Jones is currently $0.76 on Prediction Strike.
Don’t start any Bills RB - Although Matt Breida is the back to own in Buffalo. Good stash who should see more work.
Receiving
People forget the Saints actually start WRs every game. Marquez Callaway leads the team in route % but will see Tre White today. No thank you.
Allen said after the game on Sunday he needs to force the ball to Stefon Diggs more often. Diggs agreed. Dawson Knox saw 10 targets last week while Cole Beasley only saw a 70%+ snap share once in the past four. Emmanuel Sanders is who we thought he was. Still good.
Quick Slants
Devonta Smith vs. Marshon Lattimore (video)
Jonathan Taylor received Nickelodeon’s highest honor (slimed) (video).
Sean McDermott said “Yes” when asked if Matt Breida has earned more touches in the Bills offense.
Tom Brady was mic’d up for the Week 11 win over the Giants. F-bombs & all. (video)
Sean McVay expects Odell Beckham Jr. to play a big role this week.
Thanks for joining us - Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. Enjoy whatever you’re eating. If you enjoy the newsletter, you can support the Morning Huddle through this link.
We’re thankful for you. Now let’s watch some f-ing football!!
- Eddie & Jake
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PS: We’ve been buying shares of David Montgomery on Prediction Strike. It’s the fun way to invest.
Hope the Surgery went well. Thank you both for such wonderful insights into the game. This is the first read of my day each day. All insights well appreciated!!
Thanks for providing this intel and info on a daily basis it is very valuable and has made me a better fantasy player