🏈Future WR Studs

Michael Carter, Strength of Schedules, Urban Meyer and don't buy the DJ hype.

Good morning everyone. 

I messed up the link (twice) yesterday, so I want apologize & make sure you didn’t miss our giveaway:

• When you share the Huddle with your unique referral link, you are entered into a raffle to win an NFL jersey of your choice.

• If you win a jersey, we'll select someone you referred to win one, too. And the more you share, the better chance you have (1 referral = 1 ticket).

• We’re drawing on Nov. 1, and there’s only been 76 referrals so far…

Before we get into it, just want to say that JJ Watt is one tough dude:

Ian Rapoport @RapSheet

How serious does an injury have to be to sideline #AZCardinals DE JJ Watt? Sources say he actual tore his labrum, his bicep, and his rotator cuff — and dislocated his shoulder. Watt was playing some of his best football and helped change the culture for the undefeated AZ team.

Running Backs

“Big role change for Michael Carter coming out of the Jets bye. He got his usual 11 carries, but finally took over as the main passing down back. In Weeks 1-5, Carter ran a route on just 30% of the pass plays. That jumped to 65% vs. Patriots, which is Swift / Ekeler territory.” Let’s not go crazy, but Carter is ranked way too low in Rotoworld’s Week 8 RB Rankings.

Teams with easiest remaining strength of RB schedule (this is a Jonathan Taylor/Javonte Williams post. Also see Saquon, Kamara & Najee…)
1. Broncos
2. Colts
3. Giants
4. Steelers
5. Saints

How bad are things in Houston? Aaron Wilson of SportsTalk 790 writes that the Texans are "expected to feature David Johnson" following Ingram's trade to the Saints. Johnson is an RB3 on a horrific team.

Marshawn Lynch is a legend:

Tweet of the Day

Barstool Sports @barstoolsports

This touchdown celebration would land you 5 years in jail today

WRs

These poor WRs are bottom-five in catchable target rate among all WRs with 25+ targets this season (PFF) aka their QB’s stink:
- Elijah Moore (42%)
- Robby Anderson (55%)
- Odell Beckham (56%)
- Kenny Golladay (60%)
- Allen Robinson (63%)

On a positive note, WRs with the easiest remaining strength of schedule:

1. Falcons (Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts)
2. Rams (Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods)
3. 49ers (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk?)
4. Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk)
5. Eagles (Devonta Smith)
6. Jets (Corey Davis, Elijah Moore)

Future Studs

CeeDee’s Nuts

This reddit article explains how you find superstar WRs based on rookie production. Too long to read?

Rookie WRs with 80+ targets and 8+ yards per target have a high probability of multiple future WR1 seasons (73% for one WR1 season). A look at last year’s rookie WR studs who met this threshold:

• Justin Jefferson (7.0 tpg, 12.4 ypt)

• Tee Higgins (6.9, 8,8)

• CeeDee Lamb (6.6, 8.2)

• Chase Claypool (6.2, 8.3)

Here’s how this years’ top WRs stack up

• Ja’Marr Chase (7.4, 14.7) - GOD LEVEL

• Jaylen Waddle (8.1, 6.7) - MISS

• Devonta Smith (7.6, 7.6) - CLOSE

• Kadarius Toney* (8.3, 12.2) - HIT

*(counting 3-games)

George Kittle’s Friends

Teams with the best remaining strength of TE schedule: Broncos, Eagles and Bills. Fant, Goedert and Knox should finish strong. Mike Gesicki remains a great buy:

Ian Hartitz @Ihartitz

Only two starting NFL "tight ends" have played more than 70% of their snaps in the slot or out wide as more of a true wide receiver (PFF): Mike Gesicki (94% snaps in slot or out wide) Kyle Pitts (73%) Cool. Cool cool cool.

Quick Slants

Benjamin Solak

• Urban Meyer halloween costumes are a thing now, and we’re here for it.

• Austin Ekeler (hip) was added to the Chargers' injury report and missed practice. Not good, but all we can do is wait for today’s update. 

• Rob Gronkowski seems likely to return for Week 8's tilt against the Saints.

• Michael Thomas has been eligible to resume practicing since last week, but NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported he was "still a couple weeks away", making a Week 10/11 return best-case scenario.

• Why Evan Silva & ETR believe the Cowboys offence is ready to explode, although Dak might not play…

We also never spoke about being one-game away from a $650+ payout. We hit the Raiders, Patriots and Falcons, but Sam Darnold’s Panthers lost it.

• For new subscribers, every week we run a subscriber Pick’Em using the sponsorship $ & share the winnings* with you!

• *Unless we bet on Sam Darnold (nothing to share).

We’ll be back tomorrow with a deep dive on Elijah Mitchell & more. Thanks for joining me legends.

- Jake