🏈 Sunday Scaries
Subscriber Pick'Em, 3-matchups to target, and Mike Clay wins.
Good morning and welcome to Week 8. It’s officially Sunday & Halloween, so I plan on eating until I can’t stand (up or myself). Also: keep praying for Pat.
Let’s get into it.
Matchups to Target/Avoid
Our friends at FantasyPoints generously offered subscribers (and me) a “peek behind the curtain” for exclusive access to their Week 8 Advanced Matchups article by Wes Huber.
Target: Joe Burrow vs Jets Cover 1 & 3
“We have a new No. 1 in fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB) among all QBs over the last three seasons when facing Cover 1: Joseph Lee Burrow. On just 26% of dropbacks, Burrow has collected 33% of his career yardage, and 43% of his TDs against single coverage. When facing single coverage, Burrow’s FP/DB improves by 54% over his average (the highest such increase), his YPA improves by 26% (also first), and he’s generated a 118.8 passer rating (the top mark).
The score in this one will get out of hand. Before it does, New York’s fourth-highest rate of Cover 1 will not help the Jets’ cause. Also, in both games where the Bengals won by double digits, Burrow tossed three TDs.” I’m sold. “New York is also one of the worst in the league at defending TEs, and C.J. Uzomah is on a heater.”
Target: Diontae Johnson vs Denzel Ward
“During Pittsburgh’s last two matchups with Cleveland, Diontae Johnson has averaged 17.7 FPG. That said, Diontae only played with Big Ben in one of those two, where he posted 22.7 FPs.”
“In all five games Johnson has played this season, the opposing defense ranked within the bottom-10 teams in FPG permitted to WRs at the time of the matchup. That hasn’t prevented Diontae from averaging 19 FPG. And he’s accomplished that through target shares of at least 32% in four-of-five games.”
“Diontae will square off with Denzel Ward on half of his routes. Ward is releasing 1.13 YPCS (32nd), 0.25 FP/CS (31st), and a 100.2 TPR (44th). Ward only allowing 0.18 AY/CS (eight-best) will not be an issue for Johnson’s underneath style that’s only averaging 10.3 air yards/target.”
“The Browns use the highest rate of Cover 4 and eighth-highest of Cover 3. Chase Claypool will shred the Cover 4 looks, Diontae will want to focus his attacks on the Cover 3 snaps.”
Avoid: Justin Herbert vs Patriots Cover 1 & 3
“Digging deeper into the data, it was very interesting to learn that Herbert’s efficiency falls off the most when opposed by the two schemes: Cover 1 and Cover 3. Bill Belichick just so happens to feature both.”
“Cover 1 and 3 differ from 2, 4, and 6 in the availability of the middle of the field (MOF). The MOF is closed off by a defender patrolling “centerfield” in Cover 1 and 3.”
“When Herbert traveled to Foxboro in Week 13 last season, his stat-line read 0 TD passes and two INTs, with the Chargers losing 45-0. The reason I’ll be fading Herbert this week is in relation to the 14% decline in FP/Rt against both Cover 1 and 3 during his career. New England uses the second-highest rate of combined man coverages, the highest rate of Cover 1, and the 10th-highest rate of Cover 3. We know for a fact that Herbert is more than capable of excelling in the face of defenses using a high rate of either Cover 1 or Cover 3, but I have a strong feeling that he struggles in relation to combining each of those competitive rates.”
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Subscriber Pick’Em
Since we’ve brought sponsors on board, we want to give back. Let’s have some fun: 4-game parlays each week, chosen by YOU.
Today, we’ll put $50 on the four teams with the highest % of votes to win each week. Each winning bet gets added to giveaways and cash prizes - The more $$ we win together, the more $$ we have to give away. So far, we’re 3/4 in picks (but 0-1 in winning). Also, I can’t afford to keep doing $100 unless we start winning!
This was last week’s slip:
The Sports Betting Newsletter
Given our 0-1 record, we leave sports betting to others. Others, like Even the Odds. In less than 5-minutes every morning, this newsletter reviews the best prop bets, parlays, and the stories behind them. Plus, they were generous/genius enough to sponsor this newsletter:
Who’s Out
Up past my bedtime to get the most recent update for you. Keep an eye on Dak Prescott, but proceed like he’s sitting.
Who’s In
Kadarius Toney is back and looking great (video). Plus, he takes on the KC Chiefs defense this week. The Broncos are activating WR Jerry Jeudy off injured reserve, a source said, and he’s on track to make his return Sunday against Washington. Austin Ekeler (hip) told ESPN he will be active for Sunday's game against the Patriots.
This was Funny
If you need someone to blame, ask us start/sit questions on Twitter, then take all the credit when you make the right call.
Good luck today (this is also the last chance to enter our referral giveaway).
You’re the best. Back to bed now.
- Jake
Also, a big thanks to our sponsor, the Even the Odds newsletter: If you’re at all interested in sports & making money, you want to check them out…
Did you end up betting on the Steelers or Browns?