🏈 Stop the Count!
Everyone tests positive, an exciting thursday night matchup, Christian Kirk, XFP, Josh Lambo and Urban Meyer (again)
Good morning. This was supposed to be the year we win our leagues. I know there’s still hope, but…
In life, we make the best out of the cards we are dealt. In fantasy football, we make the best of our fantasy squad. This newsletter is packed with gems. Let’s do this.
Thursday Night Lights
A quick preview of every fantasy-relevant player in the Chiefs & Chargers game, with excerpts from a great Fantasy Points article. The Chiefs are riding a six-game win streak by limiting six straight opponents to 17 or fewer points.
Justin Herbert has 21+ FP in four straight, and ripped the Chiefs for 281/4 passing earlier this year.
Patrick Mahomes completed 27/44 passes for 260 yards, three TDs, and two INTs with 4/45 rushing when these teams met in Week 3.
Austin Ekeler posted 16+ FP for the fourth straight game, but was injured late. It’s a short turnaround this week, but Ekeler will try to play and see how he feels in warmups. If he sits, his backups are tough to trust.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 11+ FP in each of his first three games back from injury. Only the Bills (+9.7% above expectation) are getting run on more often in close games than the Chargers (+6.9%) over the last eight weeks. If we cut out Derrick Gore’s garbage time run, it leaves CEH with a 72% share of the backfield touches.
Keenan Allen is the WR2 since LA’s 7 bye with 19.7 FPG in Weeks 8-13, and was activated from the COVID list. Fire. him. up.
Mike Williams turned into the #1 WR last week with Keenan out of the lineup, catching all six of his targets for 61 yards. Against the Chargers in Week 3, Williams had 7/122/2 receiving on nine targets.
Josh Palmer and Jaylen Guyton - Palmer stepped into Allen’s place last week and finished with 5/66/1 receiving on seven targets and an 87% snap share. Guyton played a 59% snap share and had a long TD. Both are risky if the top two WRs play.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are the only two Chiefs WRs you can confidently start, despite recent struggles (they’ve combined for just 12 catches for 152 yards the last two games). Kelce had 7/104 receiving on 11 targets vs LA in Week 3.
THE XFP REPORT: WEEK 15
Every week, Scott Barrett highlights which players are seeing the best volume for fantasy, as measured by Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). This week, the article is free. I’ve been a subscriber since day one. Per Scott:
Davante Adams has seen at least 9 targets in 10 of his last 11 games, and gets an absolute dream matchup this week. Baltimore ranks 6th-worst in FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (23.1), and they’re giving up a league-high +8.5 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WR1s over their last 5 games.
Tennessee’s secondary is bad everywhere, but they’re especially bad against slot WRs, where they’re giving up a league-high 20.4 FPG. That makes Ray-Ray McCloud at least a little interesting (89% slot rate), coming off of a season-high 85% snap share in which he caught 6 of 8 targets for 32 yards.
If Ja’Marr Chase had the legendary hands of Larry Fitzgerald (zero drops), he’d be averaging somewhere between 20.3 and 31.1 FPG. Or, over the full season, 20.6 and 25.6 FPG.
Do yourself a favour and read the whole article. Yup, favour. I’m Canadian.
Stop the Covid-Count
Roger Goodell doesn’t give a damn that it’s fantasy football playoff SZN. Washington Football Team's COVID-19 list grew to 18 players after eight additions yesterday. Per Kevin Seifert, about 2/3 of player positives this week are asymptomatic. The rest have very mild symptoms, per NFL.
The NFL and NFLPA “continue to have discussions about potential changes to the COVID-19 protocols, consulting with medical experts, as well” per Ian Rapoport.
Or “Kicking the Kicker,” in Urban Meyer’s case. Urban was accused of kicking former Jaguars Kicker Josh Lambo:
122 receiving yards/game
143 air yards/game
30% target share
22.9 points/game (WR6)
Christian Kirk is a top target after DeAndre Hopkins was ruled out for the season. Cardinals WR percentage of routes run in DeAndre Hopkins' 3 missed games earlier this season:
Week 9: Christian Kirk 100%, Rondale Moore 88%, AJ Green DNP
Week 10: Kirk 80%, Green 70%, Moore 30%
Week 11: Kirk 84%, Green 66%, Moore 48%
Marvin Elequin’s newest Dynasty Report for Week 15, including Brandon Aiyuk’s resurgence.
The Chargers filled a field with toys to give away to kids (video)
All the fantasy-relevant target trends for Week 15, including a glimmer of hope for Houston
Ronald Jones II is available in 80% of ESPN fantasy leagues, and Lenny Fournette was trying to download GTA during practice.
A great thread on: We all know the thin air in Denver allows for very long kicks, but does it affect passing too? If it does, overthrows would be more frequent there than other places...
Tweet of the Day
Thanks for joining me today. Now pretend you’re Urban Meyer and go kick today’s ass.