🏈 Second-last Issue
Targets, John Madden, Antonio Brown, Waiver Wire and defenses.
Good morning. Thanks for joining us all year. What a year. Many ups, downs, and mistakes by Urban Meyer.
We’re finally onto championship week, but before we get into it, a moment for John Madden, may he rest in peace.
As a subscriber, we’re thinking you’re in the finals. That said, we want you to go out on top, so we read almost every article and jammed them into this newsletter. Buckle up.
Fantasy Performance after a Positive COVID Test: a statistical analysis
The data suggest that testing positive for COVID has a measurable impact on a player's fantasy performance, estimated at between -10% to -25%.
NFL and NFLPA have adopted the new CDC guidelines that reduce the quarantine time to 5 days from 10 days for all Covid positive players who are asymptomatic, including those who are unvaccinated
Early Look @ 17
FantasyPoints.com’s Jake Tribbey dropped his early look at Week 17 DFS without a paywall. The whole article is a must, and highlights include:
Antonio Brown: Saying Brown was the whole show for Tampa Bay on Sunday somehow feels like an understatement. He recorded 14 targets for an otherworldly 50% target share, and 101 receiving yards for a 44% yardage market share. The result was 20.1 fantasy points, but that seems on the low end of reasonable outcomes going forward.
Ronald Jones: Jones saw 22 touches and scored 16.1 fantasy points in his season debut as the Buccaneers lead RB. Jones' role on Sunday was similar to the games he filled in for Fournette last year, when Jones averaged 22.1 FPG.
Josh Palmer: Played well in his 2 games as a full-time starter, averaging 6.5 targets per game, 54.0 YPG, and 16.5 FPG.
Pop, Lock, and Pickup the Following
Darrel Williams/Derrick Gore: While not officially out yet, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is week-to-week (shoulder). Darrel Williams was an RB2 in his absence earlier this year, averaging 19 touches and 94 yards in 5 games. It's wise to have Gore as a contingency plan should Williams be placed on the COVID list.
Elijah Moore: Yup, he’s back.
Dare Ogubnowale: After a heartbreaking Achilles tear for James Robinson, Ogunbowale rushed 17 times for 57 yards and a TD. Despite a tough matchup against the Pats, this is a workhorse back going forward.
Rex Burkhead: You saw him rush for 149 yards and 2 TDs. That’s the universe we’re living in. Doubt it happens again, unless the 49ers implode.
KJ Osborn: With Adam Thielen injured, Osborn stepped up with 5 catches for 68 yards and a TD. Osborn is productive without Thielen all season. If Thielen sits, fire up Osborn.
Boston Scott/Jordan Howard/Kenneth Gainwell: Miles Sanders broke his hand on Sunday, so these RBs will see opportunities against a soft Washington run defense. Who gets the one-yard TDs? That’s the $ question.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Damien Harris was a beast, but there’s room for both to feast against a weak Jags run defense. Just look at them try to stop Zach Wilson:
Trey Lance: Lance has more working in his favor than in his previous starts. Upside wins championships, right?
Deeper pickups:
Josh Palmer
Isaiah McKenzie
Gerald Everett
MVS & Allen Lazard
Fantasy Football Defenses
With many key players out, there are a few no-brainer D/ST options available. For more info, see this SportingNews article. @Kevin_Ivers10 put together this helpful chart comparing average points allowed & points per game.
Patriots @ Jax – Of course.
Tampa Bay @ NYJ – Jets struggled to beat the Jags. Bucs are built different.
Bills @ ATL – NFL’s top-ranked defense takes on the Falcons.
Saints @ CAR – Cam Newton can’t throw and Darnold might be worse.
Colts @ LV – Colts are 2nd in the league in takeaways and Raiders have turned it over 10 times over the last 3 games.
Eagles @ WAS – Coming off a two INTS and TD performance, Eagles get a struggling Washington team that lost by 42 to the Cowboys.
Bears @ NYG – Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm. That is all.
Dolphins @ TEN – Dolphins are rolling, with a top 10 finish in 6/7 games, including two #1 finishes. Titans haven’t scored more than 2 TD in five weeks.
Rams@ BAL – Since the bye week, the Rams defense ranks 7th in EPA/play and is the best run defense by a pretty wide margin. Ravens struggling w/out Lamar.
49ers @ HOU – SF is averaging 3 sacks and 1.7 takeaways per game over the past six weeks. Still, Davis Mills and the Texans shocked the Chargers last week.
The Dolphins are such a weird team:
Target Trends
Aaron Larson wrote a great article about volume from a target perspective. Key takeaways include:
Cooper Kupp leads the league with 177 targets, 28 more than second place Justin Jefferson
Zach Ertz is a high-quality starter: Ertz had 13 targets and has seen at least 11 in consecutive weeks. This coincides with DeAndre Hopkins’s absence due to injury.
Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Mike Gesicki and Kyle Pitts are the only TEs with over 100 targets. Mark Andrews has a 10 target lead.
AJ Brown accounted for 53% of targets in his first game back in a month with 16. Must start whenever healthy.
Rob Gronkowski surprisingly only had 2 targets, despite all the injuries in Tampa Bay. The Jets have given up the 7th-most FPG to opposing TEs this season (14.5). Don’t get cute: Gronk should be started with confidence.
Despite Kelce missing time, Tyreek Hill only saw 2 targets. Hill has seen 5 or less targets in 3 of his past 4 games. Regardless, he has league-winning upside and is a must-start.
New York Football
Despite a Jets win, there’s trouble in NYC. The Giants Saquon Barkley isn’t living up to his role as captain:
Quick Slants
A shocking video of Cam Akers looking explosive at practice after tearing his Achilles only 5 months ago. Five months!!! He may play this Sunday but shouldn’t be started.
Carson Wentz is on the Covid-19 list and is out this week. Bucs coach Bruce Arians has tested positive and is isolating.
Cordarelle Patterson is a great guy (video) - that boy should’ve shared.
NFL Week 16 Team of the Week, including Josh Allen, Tee Higgins.
Evan Silva spoke with @adamlevitan about his quarter-million-dollar DFS win and takeaways from each NFL team following their Week 16 games with lookaheads to Week 17 (audio)
Allen Robinson said he lost 10 pounds when he got COVID and is still trying to feel normal.
How special was John Madden? Just listen to the man talk about Gatorade buckets (video)
Tweets of the Day
Any questions for us this week? We’re here for you. Either ask us on Twitter or comment below:
Also - if you won a prize through our referral promo this year, we’re mailing them next week.
Have a great day, thanks for joining us all year.
- Eddie & Jake