🏈 Quick Huddle
Advanced matchups, Darren Waller update, and subscriber pick'em
Good morning and good luck today. You got this.
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We ran the first-ever subscriber pick’em yesterday - these are the results as voted by you. If we win this, we’ll add all the winnings to more subscriber giveaways. Let’s GO!!
Who’s Out
Also might be out: The Washington Football Team emails that got Jon Gruden canned.
Who’s In
Alex Collins is expected to play Monday night, while Darren Waller (ankle) was added to the team’s injury report and is questionable to play, but should be fine.
Matchups to target
Our friends at FantasyPoints offered a “peek behind the curtains” to give subscribers of the Morning Huddle exclusive access to part of their Week 7 Advanced Matchups article (subscribe with AMHUDDLE for 15% off).
RYAN TANNEHILL VS. CHIEFS’ COVER 1 | 2 | 6
“Why would I recommend a QB that has only topped 20 FPs in one game this season, has only averaged 15.6 FPG over his last three, and has fallen short of floor value in each?
With both offenses working at a frantic pace, the Chiefs and Titans combine for the highest average pace of play for Week 7 at 137.2 plays/game. Kansas City is utilizing a watered down scheme rotation to what they used last season. They field the fifth-highest rate of Cover 2 and the fifth-highest rate of man coverage. When KC puts their Cover 2 in action, they’ll be met with the seventh-highest FP/Db from Tannehill over the last three campaigns (0.40). During that time frame against Cover 1, Tanny ranks eighth with 0.47 FP/Db. Between the two coverages, Tannehill has thrown 34 TDs compared to 12 INTs. Kansas City is authorizing the fifth-most FPG to opposing offenses (103.6) and second-most to opposing QBs (25.0).”
CORDARRELLE PATTERSON VS. DOLPHINS’ COVER 1
“You have two options:
RB A is garnering 23.0 touches/game (fourth-most), a 20% target share (second), drawing a 21% target rate when on the field (34th), generating 18.0 FPG (eighth-best), 8.9 pure receiving FPG (seventh), 0.76 FPs/touch (61st), and 1.13 YPRR (47th)
RB B is garnering 13.8 touches/game (32nd), a 14% target share (fifth), drawing a 37% target rate when on the field (first), generating 20.4 FPG (third-best), 15.7 pure receiving FPG (first), 1.48 FPs/touch (first), and 3.93 YPRR (first)
Perhaps you’ll choose the volume over the efficiency. If you did, you’d have Alvin Kamara slotted into your lineup. And nobody could make an overwhelming argument against the decision. The point isn’t to devalue Kamara, it’s to speak to the underappreciation for Cordarrelle Patterson’s value.
It was all about the money targets for Patterson until Week 5. Money targets and otherworldly efficiency. But Week 5 provided another wrinkle. For the first time this season, Patterson overtook Mike Davis in the backfield share — 48% to 45%, respectively, and route percentages — 52% to 43%, respectively. And Cordarrelle was also provided with his highest target share at 19%. The pricing has caught up to the production on FD. But we still have a window for Patterson exposure as the RB12 on DK.”
That was just a part of the Fantasy Points Week 7 Advanced Matchups article, thanks to Fantasy Points for allowing us to share it with you.
Thank you for joining me this morning, see you Tuesday! Should we have excerpts like this in the future?
- Jake
The Morning Huddle: an (almost) daily newsletter full of fantasy football news, memes, and stats - we spend hours finding & summarizing the best content into a short, 3-minute read.
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Parlay looking good right now
Waller is a game-time decision.