🏈 It's Sundayyyyyy

Subscriber Pick'Em, Key Matchups and Deep Dives

Good morning and welcome to Week 9. We’ve got a very short newsletter today, so strap in.

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter

Players expected to play Sunday include Dak Prescott, Taysom Hill, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Jeff Wilson Jr., Melvin Ingram, Matthew Stafford and Adrian Peterson.

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter

Players out Sunday include Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Henry, Calvin Ridley, Jameis Winston, Odell Beckham Jr., Jack Conklin, DeVante Parker, Dawson Knox, Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, Dante Pettis, Danielle Hunter, Montez Sweat, J.J. Watt, Blake Jarwin and Tyron Smith.

Subscriber Pick’Em

Since we’ve brought sponsors on board, we want to give back: 4-game parlays each week, chosen by YOU. Last week was a rough one, with the Bengals, Buccanneers, and Browns all losing. Let’s do better than 1/4 this week.

• How it works: We put $$ on the four teams with the highest % of votes to win each week. Each winning bet gets added to giveaways and cash prizes.

• Click here to make your picks

If you want to check the picks, we lock them around 12:30 and announce it on Twitter.

Advanced Matchups

Remember how last week it was clear Justin Herbert (14 points) would struggle against the Patriots’ Cover 1 & 3 schemes? That was all Wes Huber. He’s back again with another Advanced Matchups column on Fantasy Points (no paywall).

Target: Kadarius Toney vs CB Nate Hobbs

Danielle Parhizkaran/USA TODAY NETWORK

“This matchup against a Raiders’ defense featuring the highest rate of Cover 3 leans too far in Toney’s favor to ignore. With the cutoff set at 10 receptions for individual coverage qualification, Toney ranks second in the NFL with 0.85 points per route, leads the NFL with 5.06 YPRR, and has the highest target rate drawn when on the field against Cover 3 (41%). My confidence in Toney would only be threatened by another injury.”

Target: Ceedee Lamb vs Ronald Darby

“Since Lamb runs nearly two-thirds of routes from the left side, he’ll face Ronald Darby on all of those snaps. Darby is delivering 1.59 YPCS (67th), 0.31 FP/CS (66th), 0.60 AY/CS (77th), and a 112.4 TPR (66th). If the cards fall as expected, Lamb could post a season-, possibly career-, best performance on Sunday.”

Avoid: Courtland Sutton vs Trevon Diggs

“Diggs is defending from the right side of the field on just under 75% of coverage snaps. While Diggs will not shadow Courtland Sutton, the alignment numbers will place Sutton on Diggs’ side of the field on well over half of his reps. Diggs has been targeted at the 12th-lowest rate among outside CBs. When a corner is either intercepting or swatting away a fourth of all targets, QBs tend to look elsewhere. Nearly two-thirds of the total yardage allowed by Diggs has been collected on six completions. Sutton will have better days ahead.”

Deep Dives

• WR Van Jefferson (25%): Jefferson has two straight double-digit scoring weeks, seeing a combined 13 targets. His 94% and 84%  snap share over the last two games is valuable in an offense as explosive as the Rams.

• Jamal Agnew (4%): We mentioned Agnew a few weeks ago and he deserves another shot. Coming off his best game of the season (6 catches on 12 targets with a TD), Agnew will continue to see opportunities in a Jags offense that is losing/passing.

• Jaret Patterson (0.9%): The rookie led Washington in rushing yards and saw exactly as many touches as both Gibson and McKissic. He’s an injury away from the early-down back role.

Good luck today, and be sure to follow us on Twitter for any last-minute updates. We’ll see you Tuesday morning.

- Jake