🏈 In the Fields
Checking in on Dalvin Cook, defensive maneuvers, and the Seahawks v Rams preview.
Good morning. Today marks the beginning of Week 5. And it’s October. Where did 2021 go?
Value Tweet of the Day
Great chart breaking down which teams are throwing at a high rate, regardless of game script. The respective WRs on each team are seeing massive opportunities.
Week 5 starts with a BANG, with the (second) best Thursday night matchup we’ve seen all season.
Division rivals Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson face off in a must-win for both teams. The Rams cannot afford to go 0-2 in the NFC West after last week's blowout loss to the Cardinals, while the Seahawks want to avoid falling two games behind the Rams (and possibly 3 behind the Cards). Name a better division in football:
The great news for fantasy owners?
The Rams come into the game as 2 point favorites with a total over-under for the game at 54.5. Shootout time.
The Rams Fantasy Outlook
The Run Game
Darrell Henderson should be started everywhere. Henderson saw enormous volume in Week 4, despite coming off an injury. On the field for 90% of the snaps and saw 6 targets. This is his backfield.
Based on his usage, Darrell Henderson is an RB1 as long as he’s healthy. Send some trade offers.
The Passing Game
Matthew Stafford is coming off his first loss as a Ram, but don’t worry: 12 years with the Lions made Stafford an expert at bouncing back after Ls. Plus, the Seahawks defense is nothing special and the game profiles as a shootout. Stafford can be started with confidence (my QB9).
Despite Cooper Kupp’s “down game,” he still saw 13 targets, second-most in the entire NFL. He’s an easy top-5 WR with this volume. Now the difficult part:
Robert Woods: Bobby Trees has been not good, to put it nicely. Words like sh*t are also appropriate. Of Woods' four-catch, 48-yards-and-a-score performance in Week 4, 3/30/1 came in garbage time with the Rams trailing 37-13…
Woods remains a solid player who you likely spent a 4th or 5th rounder on, and as defenses adjust to take away Kupp, his opportunities will open up. For now, fantasy owners are frustrated, he is frustrated and, hell, even his coach is frustrated:
Van Jefferson: Van has quietly become a solid contributor in his 2nd season but is only viable in deeper formats as a WR 4 or 5.
Tyler Higbee is a low floor/high ceiling TE option and is a top 10 play in what could be a high-scoring affair.
Seahawks Fantasy Outlook
Not good.
The Run Game
Chris Carson has “had a long-term condition… that’s obviously inflamed right now.” This neck issue may cause Carson to miss the game or be very limited. It’s tough to start him comfortably, and I’d pivot to safer options if you can.
If Carson sits, Alex Collins is next man up. Collins looked strong last week and would be a 10-15+ player if Carson sits. If Carson is active, hard to trust either.
The Seahawks love Collins and he’s actually good:
The Passing Game
Russell Wilson is a starter every single week unless his volume completely falls off. He’s just too talented.
In terms of Seahawks pass catchers, the obvious two are DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Both have week-winning upside & should be in your lineup. Avoid any other SEA pass-catcher.
Remember this?
Tweet of the Day
After Patriots star CB Stephon Gilmore was traded for the Carolina Panthers for a washing machine and $400, the internet had fun:
Justin Fields Time
Remember the first day of highschool, when the principal says it’s the “first day of the rest of your life”? As a Bears fan, today is that day.
Justin Fields is officially the starter for the rest of the season.
A major fantasy disappointment in his first two games, Fields has 6 rushes for a sad 19 yards. But have no fear, new play-caller Bill Lazor will design more runs for Fields and play to his strengths.
Fields is a great upside stash on your bench - think Lamar Jackson-esque potential. He didn’t even go celebrate the announcement, just focused on getting better.
Another beneficiary: Darnell Mooney. It was clear that Mooney and Fields have a connection on deep balls. Mooney is in the mix as a FLEX with upside.
Allen Robinson is great buy low
He won’t match his 3rd round ADP but should be a weekly starter the rest of the way, especially since the Bears have a tough schedule the rest of the season and will be trailing often.
It is a great day for the city of Chicago: we need to let Fields play. I am all in on this kid, trading for him in any league where someone panicked after the slow start.
Quick Slants
The Packers are the likely landing spot of former Pro Bowl LB Jaylon Smith after he was surprisingly cut by the Cowboys.
Stephon Gilmore was actually traded for a 6th round pick.
Dalvin Cook missed practice but plans to play Sunday. He’ll be out there and must be started.
A great podcast highlighting the important utilization metrics you’ll want to keep an eye on. Also deep dives into Trey Lance.
Javonte Williams ran over defenders like a truck in Week 4.
With respect to practice reports, Wednesday you'll often see players DNP. Don’t panic. Sure, Zeke skipped practice today, but it’s likely maintenance for him as a vet. Thursday and Friday’s practice are much more telling. We got you.
Tweet of the Day
Can’t believe this is free…
Thanks for joining me this morning, have a great one!
- Maciek (The Commish)
The Morning Huddle: an (almost) daily newsletter full of fantasy football news, memes, and stats - giving you the edge to win titles and the laughs to enjoy every minute of it.
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