🏈 Antonio Gibson: A Shinny Situation

Odell's contract, Kyler & Nuk injuries, Nyheim Hines hype, another jersey giveaway, and Aaron Rodgers interview.

Good morning. After one of the craziest weeks in recent memory, we’re one day away from Week 9. Let’s get into it!

It’s Official

Forgot how funny this is

Odell Beckham Jr’s time in Cleveland concluded on his 29th birthday. OBJ hasn’t hit the waiver wire yet, but will be placed on waivers Monday, after which he can be claimed Tuesday at 4 pm.

As part of the settlement, the Browns removed the final two years of Odell’s deal, meaning he is scheduled to be a free agent after this season.

• Any team that claims Odell inherits his salary for the remainder of the season, which is currently $7.5 million, leaving a shortlist of teams able to claim him.

• However, the two sides are negotiating a new contract structure that would reduce his base salary as low as around $1M, making it possible for 31 teams to afford him.

• His landing spot will then be decided by which team first claims him off waivers. Like many fantasy leagues, the order is reverse standings:

The Saints are the betting favorites to land Odell, but for comedy’s sake I want to see him land in Detroit. A fitting landing spot:

What could’ve been, but wasn’t

A brief look at his accomplishments in Cleveland (one is false):

• 3.9 catches/game

• 54.7 receiving yards/game

• 7 total receiving TDs in 29 games

• 2 games with 100+ receiving yards.

• 0 off the field incidents

ESPN’s Jake Trotter writes the inside story of how the Baker Mayfield-Odell Beckham Jr. on-field Browns relationship fell apart.

Tweet of the Day

Jake Ciely @allinkid

2016

FantasyData @FantasyDataNFL

Where would Odell Beckham have to land to give him the biggest bump for fantasy football? #NFL

Red Alert 🚨

Cardinals Beat Reporter Johnny Venerable does not expect either Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins to play Sunday against the 49ers. If Christian McCaffrey plays, Matt Rhule says it would be less than a 40- to 50-play situation. George Kittle will play Week 9. Calvin Ridley will miss at least the next 3 games after being placed on Reserve/NFI list. 

Player Profile: Antonio Gibson

Antonio Banderas, Old Antonio

Move over Zorro, there’s a new Antonio in town:

New Antonio

Antonio Gibson attended East Central Community College, where he played for two years before moving to Memphis. At Memphis, Gibson averaged a ridiculous 11.2 YPC and was drafted 66th overall in the 2019 NFL draft.

• More than his blistering speed, Gibson was an intriguing prospect for his versatility: He was used mostly as a receiver (Second Team All ACC), only playing 33 snaps at RB. Coach Rivera was gushing about Gibson’s versatility and infamously compared Gibson to Christian McCaffrey.

Originally third on the RB depth chart in Washington, things quickly changed when Adrian Peterson got released. Gibson cemented himself as the lead back, with J.D McKissic as the change of pace back. Antonio got better as the year went on:

• Held to zero or fewer yards on only 3.8% of his rush attempts (1st in NFL)

• 4 TDs of 10+ yards (Led all rookies)

• PFF rushing grade of 83.4 (Led all rookies)

• Over 1000 total scrimmage yards and 11 TDs in 14 games.

After a productive rookie season, it was all aboard the Gibson hype-train heading into the 2021 season (RB11). He’s RB39 in the last three weeks. So what went wrong?

A stress fracture in his shin, that’s what

Brad Mills/USA TODAY Sports

A month ago we wrote about Gibson telling reporters he's been playing through a stress fracture in his shin. While he’s a tough dude, he should’ve rested:

• Stress fractures are caused by repetitive, high-impact exercise (like football) and are difficult to heal without resting

• Not only does the injury get worse by “toughing it out,” it often leads to chronic shin problems. Given the short shelf life of RBs, this is very concerning.

It only took multiple weeks, but Washington is finally dialing back Gibson’s workload - from 65% snap share (Week 1) to 31% (Week 8).

• With Gibson’s workload managed, rookie RB3 Jaret Patterson saw 23% of the snaps, out-touching Gibson 11-8. Although Patterson went undrafted, Ron Rivera heaped praise on him throughout the offseason.

• J.D McKissic is bigger issue. McKissic is the 3rd down back despite Gibson’s receiving prowess and JD’s involvement continues to increase (24 targets in his last 3 games) and he is 4th in RB targets this season, and RB23 in fantasy this year.

Rest of Season Outlook

TLDR: It’s not great. Unless the bye-week rest is enough to significantly improve his shin, or unless he sits out another two weeks or so to heal, Gibson’s injury could linger.

• The most important treatment is rest. Noncritical stress fractures of the tibia and/or fibula respond well to six to eight weeks (fractures of the tibia) and four weeks (fractures of the fibula) of rest”

In his last 3 games, Gibson is RB39 (behind guys like Devonta Freeman & Brandon Bolden). Once WFT is out of playoff contention, Gibson becomes a shutdown risk.

• Even if he’s healthier after the bye, Gibson’s upside is limited to RB2 passing game work. A great buy low in dynasty, but a huge risk in season-long.

Another NFL Jersey giveaway

After Sam (still deciding) & Greg (Chase Young jersey on the way) won our first-ever giveaway, Overtime (a sponsor) said:

All you have to do is subscribe to their sports betting newsletter - Even the Odds, which highlights the best stories behind the best bets each day. Only subscribers of Morning Huddle are eligible to win.

Quick Slants

• This fantastic article (from 2016) highlights why drops aren’t as important as we think, aka the tendency to overrate the impact of dropped passes.

• Nyheim Hines is extremely productive when Marlon Mack sits (18 PPG). Mack should continue to be a healthy scratch, increasing Hines ROS value.

• Taysom Hill will play behind Trevor Siemian in Week 9. This should change, but the Saints are being cautious as Hill recovers from a concussion.

• Deebo Samuel's calf "is worse this week," Shanahan says, even more reason to buy Brandon Aiyuk!

• Aaron Rodgers claimed to “follow every single NFL protocol to a T” and compared himself to MLK in a great interview with Pat McAfee here (video).

Have a great weekend, and Go Cowboys! (Note from the Editor: we do not condone the actions of this Cowboys fan)

- Eddie

I read too much about stress fractures in the shin. AMA:

Thanks again to Even the Odds for another giveaway. You should subscribe because you’ll get great content and a chance to win a free jersey (of your choice). Here’s a snippet of their most recent newsletter:

• Check out Even the Odds